As the 2025 season draws to a close, the timing feels right to revisit the predictions published in March when the year began. It’s safe to say I had a few things wrong.
AL East (prediction): BOS, BAL, NYY, TBR, TOR
AL East (actual): TOR/NYY, BOS, TBR, BAL
The Blue Jays and Yankees are tied with four games remaining on the schedule, but Toronto does hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two teams. Whichever club doesn’t take the AL East title will still head to the postseason as one of the wild card teams. Things have come together for Toronto much better than I anticipated, especially on the mound (George Springer’s resurgence helped a lot offensively).
Baltimore completely collapsed offensively, lost Grayson Rodriguez and Félix Bautista to significant arm injuries, and ultimately fired their manager in mid-May.
AL Central (prediction): CLE, KCR, DET, MIN, CWS
AL Central (actual): CLE, DET, KCR, MIN, CWS
The whole division looked like a toss-up heading into the season (aside from Chicago). An argument could probably be made that I was a little harsh with Minnesota, considering the roster didn’t look half-bad on paper, but the actual performance appears to have matched up with the prediction, so maybe I was on to something.
Detroit had one of the best records in the AL at the end of August, but has been among the worst teams in the league in September, and it might cost them the postseason.
AL West (prediction): TEX, HOU, ATH, SEA, LAA
AL West (actual): SEA, HOU, TEX, ATH, LAA
Momentum can be big in the postseason. Seattle is riding a hot streak to close out the season and might just be a tough team to beat in a short series. The moves the club made at the trade deadline have strengthened the lineup behind an already superior pitching staff.
Another season with a last-place finish in Los Angeles can only further infuriate those Angels fans who want Arte Moreno to sell the team.
NL East (prediction): PHI, ATL, NYM, WAS, MIA
NL East (actual): PHI, NYM, MIA, ATL, WAS
Philly has been among the most consistent teams in the NL this season and, aside from Milwaukee, was the earliest team in the sport to clinch a spot in the postseason. The Mets have been playing poorly and might lose their grip on the final wild card spot.
Atlanta’s collapse was easily the biggest surprise in the division. It may prove to be an interesting offseason for the Braves as they’re going to need a handful of arms (Sonny Gray looks like an obvious fit for one spot).
NL Central (prediction): CHC, CIN, MIL, PIT, STL
NL Central (actual): MIL, CHC, CIN, STL, PIT
I wrote this back in March: “This feels like it could be an easy path for the Cubs, but things never prove easy in the end. The Brewers have a roster talented enough to challenge them, and if their pitching staff can remain healthy, so too could the Reds.” Well, I was partially right.
Milwaukee surprised everyone. The Cubs cooled off after a hot start, but have held in the race most of the year. Cincinnati’s arms couldn’t stay healthy, but the team is still making a surprising late run at the last wild-card spot. I figured Pittsburgh was due to climb out of the cellar, but the organization is just stuck (until Bob Nutting decides to sell).
NL West (prediction): LAD, ARI, SDP, SFG, COL
NL West (actual): LAD, SDP, ARI, SFG, COL
LA has battled injuries most of the season, but the starting rotation has been among the best in baseball since the All-Star Break. There are surely questions about how Dave Roberts will assemble the playoff roster but there’s no reason to count the Dodgers out until they’re actually out of it.
Arizona’s big offseason additions (Corbin Burnes, Josh Naylor) didn’t help push the team forward. San Diego has kept closer to Los Angeles than most expected. The Rockies, meanwhile, are just the seventh team in league history to lose 115 or more games.
Phillies vs. Dodgers in the NLCS. Rangers vs. Orioles in the ALCS. Los Angeles over Baltimore in the World Series. Those predictions were off.
My picks for the major awards were just as incorrect:
MVPs: Bryce Harper & Bobby Witt Jr.
Cy Young Awards: Paul Skenes & Tanner Bibee
Rookies of the Year: Matt Shaw & Jackson Jobe
All in, it looks like I had half the division winners (PHI, LAD, CLE) and one of the major awards (Skenes) correct.
Milestones & stats
Carlos Rodón reached the 200-strikeout mark on Thursday, becoming just the sixth Yankees left-hander to achieve the feat. Whitey Ford, Al Downing, Ron Guidry (twice), Randy Johnson, and CC Sabathia are the others.
Aaron Judge was intentionally walked for the 35th time, setting a new AL record. That’s still just over a quarter of the way to the MLB record (Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 120 times in 2004).
Five players — Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm Jr., José Ramirez, Corbin Carroll, and Francisco Lindor — have reached the 30/30 (homers/steals) mark this season. That’s the most of any season in MLB history.
Ramirez, meanwhile, hit his 725th extra-base hit on Wednesday to break the Cleveland franchise record.
Shohei Ohtani has homered into the pool in Arizona, McCovey Cove in San Francisco, and the fountains at Kauffman Stadium this year. He just needs to hit one into the Allegheny River in Pittsburgh for the “Water Cycle”.
Ohtani’s 144 runs scored this season are more than any Dodgers player has scored in a single season since 1890.