Unpacking the Rays stadium deal collapsing and what happens next

Efforts to build a new stadium for the Tampa Bay Rays took an expected, but unfortunate turn of events this week.

Rays owner Stu Sternberg released a statement on Thursday, announcing the club’s intent to back out of a proposed $1.3B stadium deal with the city of St. Petersburg.

With a March 31 deadline to secure financing for the deal looming, it was becoming increasingly likely that talks between the team and the city were about to collapse.

October’s hurricane caused severe damage to Tropicana Field, rendering it unusable for the 2025 season, but also delayed a key city council vote to approve the initial funding for the stadium project. That delay, according to team officials, pushed the construction schedule back almost a year. That resulted in a substantial increase in the project’s overall cost.

The Rays wanted the city to pay for the added costs, which was a non-starter. The relationship between the two sides has become increasingly more contentious in the weeks since. Thursday’s announcement from the team was somewhat expected.

What happens next is unclear.

First, the St. Petersburg City Council will vote on March 27 to approve funding to cover the estimated $60M in repairs needed for Tropicana Field. The vote should be a formality, as the city is responsible for all facility repairs under the original use agreement.

There have been no indications that repairs to Tropicana Field won’t be complete before next spring.

The Rays’ lease was set to expire following the 2027 season, but because the field is unusable for a year it will be extended to 2028.

This might be the only part of the equation that proves “easy.”

Next, St. Petersburg will need to decide how much they want to bend in discussions with the team. Barring a change, it doesn’t appear as though that’s likely. St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch told reporters, including Colleen Wright at The Tampa Bay Times, that he “has no interest in working with this ownership group.” Welch added “that bridge has been burned.”

Sternberg has been pushing the city for a new stadium since 2007, working with five different mayors in that time, as Wright notes. The progress made with Welch had been far more substantial than any prior efforts.

The agreement reached between the city and the team last summer centered on a $6.5B redevelopment project for the 65-acre area surrounding Tropicana Field — land which the team and the development firm Hines and Sugar Hill Community Partners had agreed to purchase for $105M. In addition to constructing a new ballpark, extensive measures were planned to develop housing, businesses, and an entertainment center. Welch is focused on keeping the redevelopment project moving forward, whether a new stadium is included or not.

Potentially complicating matters further, The Tampa Bay Times’ Rebecca Leibman reports that a Tampa-based investment firm led by Thompson Whitley Blake sent Welch and the city council a letter of intent offering to purchase Tropicana Field and the surrounding land for $260M in cash.

Blake’s offer reportedly would immediately pay the $60M needed to repair the Trop to the city. The remaining $200M would be paid once the team’s lease expires.

Blake intends to “decouple the real estate from the MLB team,” citing the 20-year history of attendance issues the team has dealt with.

While the city would appear to have several options to consider, one potential path forward has seemingly already been shot down. According to a report from The Tampa Bay Times’ John Romano and Colleen Wright, earlier this month the team proposed a large-scale renovation to Tropicana Field. The idea would call for the team, the city, and the county to each contribute $200M towards renovations. The team would subsequently extend their lease on the ballpark for another ten years.

City leaders were not enthusiastic about the idea, per the Times’ report.

Considering all the turmoil this situation has seen, the Rays’ best chance at getting a new stadium in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area may ultimately fall on a change in ownership.

Selling the team is something Stu Sternberg appears adamantly against doing. Team president Matt Silverman has stated the same.

And yet, there are indications that he might need to consider it.

Separate reports early last week, first from Evan Drellich at The Athletic and then from ESPN’s Jeff Passan, reported that the league and several owners are pushing Sternberg to sell. The other owners have grown frustrated with Sternberg’s unwillingness to compromise. The Rays have regularly been among the league’s lowest-revenue clubs.

While there are no indications that a deal is close, at least two prospective ownership groups comprised of Tampa-area business leaders have come forward. Passan noted that members of one group may feel the team would be better suited looking to build a new stadium in neighboring Hillsborough County (where Tampa is located) rather than in Pinellas County.

Should Sternberg put the team up for sale, there’s no guarantee the highest bidder will be one of these groups.

Among the established groups actively seeking ownership of an MLB franchise, the Orlando Dreamers project is among the most well-known and perhaps a stronger candidate than many realize.

According to the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi, a source with the Dreamers says that the group has an “anchor investor” ready to buy all or part of an MLB team. The group also already has significant commitments in place to help fund a $1.7B domed stadium in Orlando.

The Dreamers were founded initially by Magic co-founder Pat Williams. After his death last summer, MLB Hall of Famer Barry Larkin took on a more prominent role within the organization. Larkin told Bianchi the group has more than $1B of the financing for the potential 45,000-seat stadium promised already.

Bianchi notes that the apparent willingness to “buy all or part of an MLB team” on the part of the Dreamers’ “anchor investor” might appeal to the league. MLB is already reportedly pressuring Rays ownership to sell. One potential solution Bianchi suggests could include the Dreamers acquiring a minority stake in the Rays and moving the team from Tampa, which would allow Sternburg to retain ownership as he seems to desire.

A potential roadblock to such a scenario, of course, would mean it takes the league out of the Tampa market — which they worked tirelessly for years to get into and have remained strongly against leaving.

For years, subpar attendance at Tropicana Field has driven the Rays to operate like one of the poorest teams in the league. The market isn’t at fault — Tampa/St. Pete is actually one of the ten largest media markets in the country — but the accessibility of the ballpark has long been an issue.

After years of painful negotiations, an agreement was finally reached to build a new stadium — while revitalizing a major portion of St. Petersburg — and the team essentially threw it away over greed. Once the project’s costs grew and he’d have to pay more out of his own pocket, Stu Sternberg let things collapse.

Now, the team’s future and perhaps Sternberg’s, are totally up in the air.