Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal has all but entrenched himself as one of the sport’s best pitchers right now. He has dominated hitters over the last two seasons, both in the regular season and postseason, and will take home his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award in a few weeks. Skubal has just one year remaining under team control, however, so the discussion from several outlets has already centered on how Detroit should move forward.
MLB.com’s Jason Beck unsurprisingly listed the question of Skubal’s future atop his list of the team’s biggest offseason questions. Beck cuts right to the point: Detroit is facing three options — Extend him, trade him, or ride the year out and see what happens.
An extension is unlikely, but not entirely impossible — Beck points to the extension Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed with the Blue Jays just six months ago, when the two sides were in a similar situation. Detroit is the only organization Skubal has known ever since the club selected him in the 9th round of the 2018 Draft, so there may be some sentiment to “finish what he started,” but that doesn’t mean reaching an agreement on an extension will be easy or that Skubal will give the Tigers a discount to stay. This is especially true with Scott Boras as his agent.
Detroit made an effort to extend Skubal last offseason, though that offer was quickly rejected. The Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold reported that it was a four-year deal that totaled less than $100 million, which still would have set a new team record for a pitcher before free agency, topping the five-year, $80 million deal they signed Justin Verlander to in February 2010.
That figure pales in comparison to the $400 million contract New York Post columnist Jon Heyman suggests Skubal could command in free agency after next season. Such an amount would represent a significant shift from the Tigers’ owners. The organization has only agreed to one contract of $100 million or more since Christopher Ilitch took control of the organization in 2017, following his father’s passing — a six-year, $140 million deal with Javier Báez that runs through the 2027 season.
Only two deals in team history have been larger: Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million contract and Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year, $248 million agreement.
Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has “famously talked about not believing in this period of time as a Skubal Window”, as The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen writes. Harris has remained focused on building a sustainable organization that can contend annually. If that’s truly the case, and the team doesn’t believe Skubal will ever agree to an extension (now or a year from now), then his potential trade value may never be higher.
A year ago, the White Sox faced a somewhat similar situation with Garrett Crochet. The left-hander was entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, and it was increasingly unlikely that he would remain in Chicago long-term. Chicago would trade Crochet in December to the Boston Red Sox for catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, and right-hander Wikelman González. Teel (14th overall, 2023) and Montgomery (12th overall, 2024) had been Boston’s last two first-round draft picks.
Crochet and the Red Sox quickly agreed to a six-year, $170 million contract extension before April. He’d respond with a career-best season, going 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA (159 ERA+) in a league-leading 205.1 IP with 255 strikeouts. His 6.3 bWAR was more than he’d totaled across four seasons in Chicago (5.9).
Skubal should command a bigger return than Crochet, but some teams may be hesitant about their chances to sign Skubal to an extension. Even if he’s a pure rental for one season, every team seeking to upgrade its pitching staff will be calling the Tigers. The price won’t be cheap, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon notes:
“Just to provide a general idea, one industry source unaffiliated with the club speculated Detroit may look to ask for two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect. In Mets parlance, that means something like Tong, Sproat, and prospect Jett Williams. The Mets’ farm system ranks among the league’s best, but such a demand would significantly compromise its health. Perhaps it takes less or involves a major-league player or two; teams in recent years haven’t exactly received jaw-dropping returns for players entering their walk years.
Right-handers Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat (4th and 5th) and infielder/outfielder Williams (3rd) each rank among the Mets’ top prospects on MLB Pipeline.
Detroit could always stand pat, of course, and see how the 2026 season plays out.
The Tigers have reached the postseason in each of the last two seasons, despite their near-collapse over the final six weeks of 2025. There are very few long-term contracts on the books and a core of talented young players rising through the farm system. The team will head into the offseason looking to upgrade an offense that hit a collective .247/.316/.413 and ranked 11th in runs scored, 10th in home runs, and 12th in OPS, while also needing to address the bullpen and likely add at least one starter (pending Jack Flaherty’s status).
Skubal will still be affordable for the Tigers, with MLBTR’s projected arbitration salaries suggesting Skubal should earn $17.8 million in 2026. Detroit could extend him a qualifying offer next offseason before he reaches free agency, which will ensure the club will at least receive a compensation pick if he ends up signing elsewhere.