Three trades in 45 days: How the Marlins failed their rebuild

2017 was an eventful year for the Marlins franchise.

Edinson Vólquez threw the sixth no-hitter in franchise history in early June. Ichiro Suzuki set multiple records (most interleague hits, passing Derek Jeter; most hits by a foreign-born player, passing Rod Carew; oldest to start in center field, passing Rickey Henderson; plus the club record for pinch-hits in a season with 22). The All-Star Game was held at Marlins Park. Giancarlo Stanton would set new franchise marks in home runs (59) and RBI (132) en route to winning the NL Most Valuable Player Award.

Miami finished the year with a 77-85 record, second place in the NL East but 20 games behind the Nationals and 10 out of the last Wild Card spot.

That August, Jeffrey Loria agreed to sell the Marlins to a group led by Bruce Sherman for a sum of $1.2B. Derek Jeter, one of the group’s minority owners, was named the Marlins CEO and head of baseball and business operations.

The new owners held a fire sale that offseason in an attempt “to bring the franchise back to profitability.”

Three trades, all completed in a 45-day span, reshaped the Marlins franchise.

On December 11, Giancarlo Stanton was traded to the Yankees for Starlin Castro, José Devers, and Jorge Guzmán.

On December 14, Marcell Ozuna was traded to the Cardinals for Sandy Alcantara, Daniel Castano, Zac Gallen, and Magneuris Sierra.

On January 25, Christian Yelich was traded to the Brewers for Lewis Brinson, Isan Díaz, Monte Harrison, and Jordan Yamamoto.

Miami traded their entire starting outfield — plus second baseman Dee Strange-Gordon was moved to the Mariners just days earlier — within a matter of weeks.

Only one of the deals has worked in Miami’s favor.

Stanton was among the sport’s best hitters and coming off a season during which he hit .281/.376/.631 (169 OPS+). He’d led the league in homers, RBI, OPS+, and WAR. Interest existed from multiple clubs, but the no-trade provision included in the massive contract extension (13 years, $325M) the team had given him before the 2015 season made things challenging.

Miami appeared to have separate deals on the table with the Giants and Cardinals at one point, only for Stanton to voice an objection. He would only accept a trade to one of four teams: the Astros, Cubs, Yankees, or his hometown Dodgers.

Bringing aboard Gary Denbo to lead the Marlins’ scouting department was one of the first moves Sherman & Jeter had made after taking control of the team. Denbo had spent years in a similar role within the Yankees organization. When the two sides agreed to a trade, it was widely reported that Denbo’s insight into his former organization played a crucial role.

Starlin Castro’s inclusion was mainly about offsetting some of Stanton’s contract, even though it opened a hole in the Yankees’ lineup at second base. Castro had two years and roughly $23.7M remaining on his contract. He’d step right into Miami’s starting lineup (appearing in 154 games in the first year and all 162 the second), hitting a combined .274/.314/.418 (97 OPS+) over his two seasons with the Marlins before leaving in free agency to sign with the Nationals.

José Devers (Rafael’s younger cousin) had just finished his first pro season. Miami was aggressive with his first assignment that next spring, sending him to Class-A ball as an 18-year-old, but Devers’ path through the minors was not smooth. He’d eventually debut during the 2021 season, getting into 21 games. He’d appear in three more last season. Through 50 plate appearances in the majors, he’s hit .244/.300/.311 (67 OPS+). Miami outrighted him off their 40-man roster last season. He became a free agent in October and signed a minor league deal with the Braves.

MLB Pipeline had Jorge Guzmán ranked as New York’s no. 9 prospect at the time of the trade (Devers was unranked), but he would be the least-productive piece of their return. The right-hander struggled in the minors with his control, resulting in spikes in both his hit and walk rates. With a roster decimated by injuries, the Marlins called on Guzmán for a brief callup in both 2020 and 2021, but he was hit extremely hard in limited action, allowing 8 runs on 6 hits with 7 walks over 2.2 IP. Miami outrighted him off their 40-man roster late in the 2021 season. He, too, would leave via free agency to sign a minor league deal with the Giants.

The three players combined for 2.3 WAR (2.9 from Castro, -0.2 from Devers, and -0.4 from Guzmán).

Injuries have plagued Stanton’s tenure with the Yankees. He was limited to under 100 plate appearances in two of his first three seasons with New York. He’s missed time while on the IL in each of the last three seasons and missed nearly all of spring training this year while receiving at least three PRP injections in his ailing elbows.

Still, in 2,776 PA over his seven years with the Yankees, Stanton has batted .241/.323/.483 (120 OPS+) while hitting 162 home runs. He was an All-Star in 2022 and received some MVP consideration in 2018 (finishing 19th). He’s been worth 9.1 WAR.

He’s added another 18 homers and a .265/.331/.662 slash line (while winning the ALCS MVP in 2024) in 172 postseason plate appearances.

Ozuna had just completed the best season of his young career. He slashed .312/.376/.548 (149 OPS+) on the year while winning his first Silver Slugger Award. He was an All-Star for the second time, won a Gold Glove in left field, and finished 15th in MVP voting.

Days after their talks to acquire Stanton collapsed, the Cardinals and Marlins reconnected to talk about Ozuna. A deal would come together quickly. St. Louis was determined to upgrade their outfield.

The Cardinals’ cost appeared high at the time but they avoided including any of their top pitching prospects (Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, or Dakota Hudson). MLB Pipeline had three of the prospects ranked among the team’s top 30 prospects (Magneuris Sierra was no. 6, Sandy Alcantara no. 9, and Zac Gallen no. 14).

Sierra had an immediate path to the majors with the Marlins. He would spend four years in Miami, mostly serving as a part-time fourth outfielder. He only once saw more than 200 plate appearances in a single season. He’d hit .230/.277/.273 (51 OPS+) across 476 PA during his time with the Marlins before the team let him leave in free agency after the 2021 season (he’d sign with the Angels).

Alcantara also had a quick path to Miami, having made his debut with the Cardinals the prior September. Alcantara made just six starts that first season but cemented himself as a key piece of the Marlins rotation the next year. He would start 138 games for the Marlins between 2018-23, posting a 3.31 ERA (130 ERA+) with 779 strikeouts and 267 walks over 892.1 IP. He’d pitch in two All-Star games and won the NL Cy Young in 2022, going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA in a league-leading 228.2 IP.

Alcantara missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery and now appears to be a likely candidate to be traded again this summer. Still, he’s been the most valuable piece from this deal by a wide margin.

Gallen went right to Triple-A after joining the Marlins organization. He’d spent a season and a half there, dominating the league in 2019 by going 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA over 14 starts before making his debut in Miami in late June. The right-hander made seven starts for the Marlins, posting a 2.72 ERA over 36.1 IP with 43 strikeouts and 18 walks, before being traded at the deadline to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm would debut for the Marlins the next year and he’d become an instant staple in their lineup, either at second base or center field. Over his five seasons with the Marlins, he’d hit .246/.309/.440 (101 OPS+) with 66 homers and 81 stolen bases. He was an All-Star in 2022. Miami would trade him to the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2024 for three minor leaguers: infielders Abrahan Ramirez and Jared Serna, along with catcher Agustín Ramírez. None of the three have reached the majors yet, but Ramírez and Serna should both see time at Triple-A in 2025.

Daniel Castano had yet to pitch at a full-season league when he was acquired by Miami. He worked his way up through their system, debuting during the 2020 season. Over the next four seasons, he’d make 24 appearances (17 starts) totaling 88.2 IP in which he posted a 4.47 ERA (97 ERA+) with 49 strikeouts and 31 walks. Miami let him reach free agency after the 2023 season and Castano would head to Korea to pitch for the NC Dinos.

The group has combined for 28.2 WAR (-1.2 from Sierra, 20.7 from Alcantara, 1.2 from Gallen, 6.7 from Chisholm, and 0.8 from Castano).

Ozuna proved to be just what the Cardinals wanted over his two years in St. Louis. Ozuna slashed .262/.327/.451 (107 OPS+) over 1,177 PA with 52 homers and 177 RBI. He stole a career-high 12 bases in 2019. His two years in Cardinal-red totaled 4.6 WAR.

St. Louis extended a qualifying offer to Ozuna that offseason but otherwise elected to focus on their internal options rather than push to re-sign their slugger. Ozuna declined the qualifying offer to sign a one-year deal with the Braves. The Cards received a compensatory pick in the following draft (70th overall), which they used on Alec Burleson.

Burleson was in the majors by 2022 and entering this season is a .256/.307/.402 (95 OPS+) hitter over 995 PA with 30 homers. He’s been worth 0.5 WAR.

Yelich was understandably frustrated with things in Miami after seeing Strange-Gordon, Stanton, and Ozuna all traded. There were a lot of talented players on the Marlins roster, even if they hadn’t come together to reach the playoffs.

Yelich was coming off another solid, though not yet superstar-caliber, season with the Marlins. He’d hit .282/.369/.439 (120 OPS+) with 36 doubles, 18 homers, and 16 stolen bases. Like Ozuna, his salary was rising in arbitration, and once he voiced his frustrations, a deal seemed like only a matter of time.

Milwaukee didn’t look like they would prioritize the outfield that offseason, but that’s just what they wound up doing. With Yelich available, they pounced, parting with four prospects to complete the deal on the same day they’d announce signing Lorenzo Cain to the largest free agent deal in club history ($80M over five years).

MLB Pipeline ranked Lewis Brinson as the top prospect in Milwaukee’s system and 13th overall on their Top 100. The outfielder had struggled in his first cup of coffee in the majors the prior June but had a strong minor league track record. He got into more than 100 games that first season with the Marlins but saw his playing time drop each of the next few seasons. Over his four years in Miami, he batted .203/.248/.325 (55 OPS+) with 296 strikeouts over 1,056 PA. The Marlins let him leave in free agency after the 2021 season. He saw another 39 PA with the Giants the next season and has since played in Japan and Mexico.

Isan Díaz had just been named Milwaukee’s Minor League Player of the Year and was ranked as their no. 6 prospect. Miami initially sent him to Double-A, but by 2019, he was up with the Marlins. Díaz would get 501 PA over the 2019-21 seasons, batting just .177/.267/.274 (47 OPS+). The Marlins outrighted him off their 40-man roster early in 2022 and the Giants purchased his rights.

Monte Harrison, Milwaukee’s no. 14 prospect, also headed right to Double-A with Miami. He’d join the Marlins by 2020 and would hit .175/.230/.263 (33 OPS+) over 62 PA. The Marlins released him during spring training in 2022.

Jordan Yamamoto moved quickly through Miami’s system and debuted in June 2019. He would make 19 appearances (18 starts) over the next two seasons, posting a 6.20 ERA (70 ERA+) over 90 IP with 95 strikeouts and 43 walks. Miami would trade Yamamoto to the Mets in February 2021 (for minor leaguer Federico Polanco, who never played above High-A) and he’d retire two short years later.

The quartet of prospects combined for -5.9 WAR (-3.1 from Brinson, -2.7 from Díaz, -0.1 from Harrison, and 0.0 from Yamamoto).

Yelich’s impact on the Brewers was immediate. He broke out in a big way in his first season in Milwaukee, hitting .326/.402/.598 (164 OPS+) with 34 doubles, 36 homers, and 110 RBI. He was an All-Star for the first time, won his second Silver Slugger, won the batting title, and was named NL MVP. He’d follow that up by hitting .329/.429/.671 (179 OPS+) with 44 HR and 97 RBI the next year, again winning a batting title but finishing a close second in MVP voting (to Cody Bellinger).

Following those two seasons, Milwaukee signed Yelich to a nine-year, $215M deal that would keep him a Brewer long term. Back and knee injuries have slowed Yelich in the five years since, but he’s still batted .262/.368/.420 (117 OPS+) in more than 2,300 PA. He’s totaled 24.4 WAR over his seven seasons with the Brewers.

2017 closed with the Marlins under orders from ownership to rebuild and reduce payroll. The edict resulted in the team trading four of its most popular players for an enormous amount of payroll savings and 14 players.

Entering the 2018 season, Miami had just two players on MLB.com’s Top 100 prospect list: Lewis Brinson at 27 and Monte Harrison at 71. Chisolm would be ranked at 66 entering the 2019 season and 65 heading into 2020, but no other prospect acquired in any of these deals would appear at all in the major rankings.

Seven years later, only Alcantara (and the trio of prospects acquired in return for Chisolm) remains a Marlin.