TBNL: Slow down on the expansion talk

Major League Baseball (and the MLB Players Association) agreed twice to expand the league during the 1990s. The Florida (now Miami) Marlins and Colorado Rockies began play with the 1993 season. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay (formerly Devil) Rays joined them in 1998.

It’s no secret that league officials — notably current commissioner Rob Manfred — would like to see that number increase to 32. Manfred has even stated several times that he hopes to have a plan in place for expansion before his term as commissioner ends with the 2029 season.

Expansion has once again become a popular topic of discourse following Manfred’s seemingly spontaneous (and not very well thought-out) comments on the matter during Sunday’s Little League Classic. Notably, Manfred hinted during the televised broadcast that “adding two teams would give the league the opportunity to geographically realign”.

Realignment of some kind would indeed make sense should the league expand to 32 teams, with a move to eight divisions of four teams each being the most logical result. How, specifically, these groups are determined is a vastly different subject. Many potential scenarios and factors come into play.

The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt took a somewhat simple but realistic approach to what realignment might look like. Nesbitt had one goal: maintain the traditional and division rivalries (like Cubs-Cardinals or Yankees-Red Sox), while moving as few teams as possible.

Nesbitt also factored in the four most likely candidates for potential expansion into his thinking, which helped with only two clubs (the Rockies and Rays) having to switch leagues. The resulting proposal:

There are some obvious questions raised here (the NL South is not just an attendance blackhole, but might also prove to be the easiest division to win by a wide margin), which Nesbitt does address. He also raises a fair question about whether expansion teams encroaching on existing territories would make those franchises (Atlanta and Seattle, specifically) more interested in sharing a division with their “new rival”.

While expansion is a fun topic of debate, there’s very little chance it will be raised seriously by the league and owners anytime soon. Too much needs to be done to stabilize the existing 30 teams first. Even Manfred has admitted as much, directly noting the stadium situations for the A’s and Rays as key issues.

Officials from the A’s (and presumably the league) would suggest that construction of the new ballpark in Las Vegas is on schedule. There are, still, many questions outstanding about the project — notably how A’s owner John Fisher expects to pay for it all; he’s still attempting to raise funding.

As of August 19, the “Ballpark Cam” the team set up to allow fans to monitor the construction process, shows that little has been completed outside of a few structural support pillars.

The $1.75 billion project is supposed to be ready for the 2028 season.

As for the Rays, plans to build the team a new stadium in Tampa were scuttled this past spring. The team and city had an agreement in place to share in the costs associated with the project, but once Hurricane Milton hit the city in October 2024 — tearing the roof off of Tropicana Field, among other damage to the city — things went awry. Construction costs ballooned and timelines were delayed, which upset Rays owner Stuart Sternberg to the point where the agreement collapsed and he was, effectively, pressured into selling the team.

That sale should be finalized in September, but it remains to be seen how the new ownership group will approach things — building a new stadium, rebuilding relationships with the city itself, and in terms of investing in the on-field product. Time will be needed before the league has any clarity here on what the team’s future looks like.

There is the other obvious factor, as Joe Sheehan alludes to above, that the league needs to have 30 stable, active, and competitive teams in place before looking to expand. That can’t honestly be said right now — not with ownership groups refusing to spend on, or in some cases, even try to improve their rosters.

Between the A’s and Rays timelines for a new stadium (or lack thereof), inattentive ownership groups, and Rob Manfred’s own deadline — he has insisted that he will not accept an extension to his tenure as commissioner — the chances of expansion actually happening are growing increasingly slim.

There was little question that Roki Sasaki would land the biggest signing bonus of the 2025 international amateur free agent class. The 23-year-old Japanese right-hander was a rarely available talent that every team could make a run at signing (not all of them put forth an honest effort).

The Mets were among the teams that put their efforts elsewhere, signing shortstop Elian Peña to a $5 million signing bonus (the second-highest bonus in the class, behind Sasaki’s $6.5 million). The 17-year-old from the Dominican Republic was the third-ranked prospect in the class, per MLB Pipeline

Peña struggled initially, going 0-for-26 to start his pro career, but has impressed since. Entering play on Tuesday, he’s batting .299/.423/.540 through his first 217 PA with 13 doubles, 9 home runs, 21 stolen bases and more walks (35) than strikeouts (33).

On Monday, in the Dominican Summer League, Peña mashed three home runs against the Phillies.

While an impressive achievement on its own, it marked the second time this year he’s done so. Peña is the first player ever to have two three-home-run games in his first professional season and only the third to do so before turning 20 (the others being Travis Denker and Joey Gallo).

Yankees Triple-A infielder Jose Rojas is the only player with two three-homer games this season.

Rich Hill was released by the Royals almost three weeks ago. There have been no indications that he is close to signing with another team to continue his 21-year career.

Hill appeared on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast last Wednesday, alongside longtime Boston sports radio host Rob Bradford (listen here). Hill was his usual candid self for nearly an hour, with the pair discussing several topics. Among them, Hill only half-jokingly suggested that he “could be available to throw live BP for the Red Sox (or another team) to get them ready for the playoffs”.

While Hill doesn’t appear to be in any rush to make (or announce) a retirement decision, one has to wonder if that’s being considered at this point (barring a weird surprise this winter where he is named to the USA World Baseball Classic roster).

Kiwoom Heroes infielder Sung Mun Song will ask the team to post him for MLB teams this offseason.