TBNL: Roki Sasaki chooses the Dodgers

Roki Sasaki will sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The easiest prediction of the offseason came to fruition Friday afternoon when Sasaki announced on Instagram that he had chosen Los Angeles.

The 23-year-old is considered by many to be one of the most talented young pitchers in the world. The 6’3” right-hander can exceed 100 mph with his fastball and has excellent secondary pitches. He made his debut in the NPB with the Chiba Lotte Marines at age 19 and over the last four seasons, he has posted a 2.10 ERA with 595 strikeouts over 394.2 IP (11.5 K/9).

Sasaki authored one of the greatest pitching performances in baseball history in April 2022, hurling a 19-strikeout perfect game that included a record 13 consecutive batters going down on strikes.

He was also a part of Japan’s World Baseball Classic-winning roster in 2023. He made a pair of starts in the tournament against the Czech Republic and Mexico, striking out 11 over 7.2 IP. It was that experience in the WBC — namely getting to be around Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and others — according to comments shared by his agent, Joel Wolfe, that pushed Sasaki’s desire to move to MLB to only grow stronger.

Of course, it’s that push to come over now that has been a major topic of discussion for at least the last year.

MLB’s rules surrounding international amateur free agents limit teams’ spending. In short, clubs began the signing period with $5-8M in available funds (teams are allowed to trade for up to 60% more of their allotted pool in $250K increments). The same rules applied when Ohtani first signed with the Angels, resulting in a bonus of just over $2.1M.

Sasaki forfeited a chance at a massive payday by pushing to be posted now instead of waiting until he turned 25. While he wasn’t as decorated as Yamamoto (who had won three straight Sawamura Awards and had shown he could handle a much larger workload) the belief is that Sasaki could have commanded a contract similar to the 12-year, $325M deal that Yamamoto signed with Los Angeles a year ago.

Instead, Sasaki will sign a minor league contract with the Dodgers. He’ll reportedly receive a signing bonus of $6.5M. Once he’s added to the active roster he’ll only cost the club the MLB minimum until he reaches arbitration (i.e. at least the next two seasons). He’ll be a relative bargain.

The Marines's decision to post him now has also come under fire in Japan.

For one, the club sacrificed a chance at tens of millions of dollars from the transfer fee in the posting process. The Orix Buffaloes received a transfer fee of $20M when they posted Yamamoto last year, but the Marines will get just $1.6M from Los Angeles.

More importantly, the Marines have come under question around the NPB for essentially “giving away one of Japan’s brightest talents for next to nothing,” as Jim Allen of the Kyodo News wrote.

Teams will commonly post players as a reward following years of contributions. Sasaki’s track record wouldn’t fall into that category. He drew fans to Marines games but has yet to pitch a full season and hasn’t led the Marines to a championship.

The common belief is that Sasaki and the Marines had a handshake agreement when he was drafted, the club would post him at a previously agreed-upon point. Such “secret agreements” are common in NPB and rarely become public knowledge. As Allen notes, they make the player appear selfish and the team weak.

With Sasaki’s posting coming up and the hype surrounding him growing, rumors have swirled for much of the last year that he was destined to end up in Los Angeles. There were even suggestions the two sides had a handshake deal in place already. The conspiracy theorists were so vocal at points that MLB reportedly conducted a thorough investigation before permitting the Marines to post Sasaki, according to Jack Harris at the Los Angeles Times. The league wanted to ensure “the protocol agreement had been followed” between MLB and the NPB. They also wanted to be sure there were no pre-arranged deals between Sasaki and the Dodgers, which would be viewed as tampering. They found no evidence of any issues.

Sasaki’s desire to move to MLB has never seemed to be financially motivated. Wolfe has explained in multiple interviews that Sasaki views things differently than most:

Much of that mindset stems from Sasaki’s upbringing. He grew up in the Iwate Prefecture, located North of Tokyo, in the Tōhoku region of Japan. In March 2011, an earthquake (the largest ever recorded in Japan) and subsequent tsunami devastated the region and nearly caused a meltdown at the nearby Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. More than 200,000 residents lost their homes and nearly 20,000 lost their lives.

Among the dead were Sasaki’s father and grandparents. His family home was destroyed. He, his mother, and brothers would relocate and baseball became an outlet for him. He was 9.

Los Angeles agreed to give Sasaki a $6.5M signing bonus, but various reports have suggested that both the Blue Jays and Padres offered more. Toronto’s offer was reportedly more than $8M. San Diego was willing to push their offer to $10M (though it’s unclear where they would have acquired the extra pool space).

LA started with just over $5.1M in their bonus pool when the international signing period opened. They made a pair of trades to acquire additional funds, adding $1.5M from the Reds and another $750K-1M from the Phillies (exact figures haven’t been reported). That puts their pool close to $7.5M.

The Dodgers plan to use their remaining funds to sign roughly 15 other players with whom they verbally agreed to deals. Those signings include a 6’7” right-handed pitcher named Joseph Deng, the first player ever signed out of South Sudan.

In an age where pitching depth is becoming increasingly more valuable, the Dodgers will head into spring training with enviable depth on the mound. Ohtani is expected to return to the starting rotation this year alongside Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and now Sasaki. That doesn’t include Clayton Kershaw, who will likely return for his 18th season with the club. Arms like Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, and Nick Frasso will likely be forced back to Triple-A.

LA adds Tanner Scott, too

As if the Dodgers weren’t already having a big weekend, the club also landed the best left-handed reliever on the free agent market in Scott. The sides agreed to a four-year, $72M deal that reportedly includes $21M in deferred payments.

The $18M AAV is the third-highest salary for a reliever in free agent history, tied with Liam Hendriks and behind only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. The $72M total guarantee is the fifth-highest total given to a reliever trailing Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

Scott has been among the best relievers in baseball across the last two seasons, posting a 2.04 ERA and 1.053 WHIP with 188 strikeouts over 150 IP (11.3 K/9) with the Marlins and Padres.

He likely steps into LA’s closer role in what should be a deep bullpen alongside Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Michael Kopech, and Ryan Brasier.

The Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays all reportedly were pursuing Scott. Chicago offered Scott a four-year, $66M contract, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Their efforts to add to the bullpen have now seemingly shifted to Carlos Estevez.

“The Dodgers are ruining baseball!”

LA’s big-spending offseasons have left a fair number of baseball fans panicked, feeling that the club’s deep pockets are “ruining the game” in some manner. Yet, there has never been more parity in the sport.

16 different franchises have won the World Series since 2000, the last time any team won back-to-back championships.

There will be a lot of discussion in the next weeks and months about whether MLB should implement a salary cap. There is no need to do so, but doing so will not be an easy task no matter where public perception falls on the subject. If owners attempt to implement one, the player’s association will surely challenge it — potentially leading to a prolonged work stoppage.

Elsewhere, around the league …

• Sammy Sosa and the Cubs have finally reunited. Sosa appeared at the team’s fan convention on Friday, making his first public appearance with the team in more than two decades. The seeds were sown for this a month ago when Sosa released a statement in conjunction with the team, apologizing for “mistakes” in his past without actually specifying what he did wrong. Sosa received a massive standing ovation from those in attendance at CubsCon, as did Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg who recently announced his cancer had returned.

• Toronto was connected to Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Sasaki but fell short in each case. The Blue Jays have reportedly now shifted their attention to Max Scherzer in their pursuit of starting pitching. The 40-year-old threw just 43.1 IP last season following a variety of injuries but is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

• The Jays are also being linked again to Anthony Santander in their search to add a bat.

• Former catcher, manager, and broadcaster Jeff Torborg passed away on Sunday at age 83. Torborg played for 10 seasons with the Dodgers and Angels from 1964-1973 and then managed the Indians, White Sox, Mets, Expos, and Marlins over parts of 11 seasons from 1977-2003.

• Boston and Jarren Duran reached an agreement to avoid arbitration. Duran will receive $3.75M this season (he’d filed at $4M, the club at $3.5M) and the team has a club option for 2026 at $8M. Even if they decline the option, Duran will still have three years of arbitration eligibility but the option gives them some potential cost-certainty.

• The A’s announced some subtle uniform changes for the coming season, including a new patch on the left sleeve that will feature an image of Sacramento’s Tower Bridge, which can be seen from Sutter Health Park where the club will play the next three seasons. The elephant standing on a baseball which has been prominent throughout the franchise’s history is no more, at least temporarily. The team will also wear a No. 24 patch this season to honor Rickey Henderson.