The international side of this offseason’s free agent market looked like it would be quite busy. There were at least six prominent players from Japan’s NPB or Korea’s KBO who were identified as potential targets for MLB teams at the onset of the offseason. At least three more stood out as candidates for a possible return to MLB after stints playing overseas.

Now that the calendar has turned to 2026 and the last posting windows have closed, each of these players has agreed to deals for the upcoming season. It’s become evident that the “expert projections” all seemed to overestimate the level of interest each would receive on the open market. None signed a deal longer than four years, and almost all of them agreed to deals for far less guaranteed money than expected.

The majority of the international market falling below projections isn’t something that’s gone unnoticed. The Athletic’s Levi Weaver and Tim Britton touched on the very subject on Monday (coincidentally, or conveniently, after I had already written nearly 1700 words on this group, most of which follows below). Britton, in particular, noted his surprise that Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai signed for well-below their projected contracts.

Home run power still captures the attention of MLB fans (and teams) with ease. That power is why Munetaka Murakami’s posting has been so highly anticipated over the last several years, with some even making the bold suggestion that he could be among the best hitters to come to MLB from Japan since Shohei Ohtani. The heavy interest began early in Murakami’s career, particularly after he hit 56 home runs during the 2022 season as a 22-year-old to break Sadaharu Oh’s single-season home run record by a Japanese-born player (the NPB mark is 60, by Wladimir Balentien in 2013). Murakami’s legend only grew further the next spring when he suited up for Team Japan at the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

While he’s continued to crush the ball, hitting .270/.394/.557 with 246 home runs in his eight seasons in the NPB, other holes have appeared in Murakami’s offensive profile, including a heavy strikeout rate (977 SO in 892 career games). Questions have also developed about where he fits best defensively, with a move across the diamond to first base looking increasingly more likely over the last two seasons.

Still, Murakami had a decorated career in Japan: a four-time All-Star, two-time MVP, and the Central League Rookie of the Year in 2019. Murakami was No. 4 on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list at the start of the offseason, with their team projecting an eight-year, $180 million contract. Despite the years of anticipation, a truly competitive market failed to materialize for the nearly-26-year-old slugger as teams were wary of how his strikeout-heavy approach would translate to the major leagues. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Murakami had several offers to consider, including several for longer terms but smaller AAVs, before he elected to accept a two-year, $34 million deal with the Chicago White Sox (who will indeed move him to first base). Chicago will also pay a $6.575 million posting fee to Yakult. Murakami is banking on being able to establish himself over these two seasons, at which point he’ll be able to re-enter the free agent market ahead of his age-28 season.

While most of the early attention centered on Murakami and his power potential, another corner infielder became available via the posting system with a stronger all-around profile. Kazuma Okamoto slashed .277/.361/.521 with 248 homers over his 11 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. The 29-year-old Okamoto is older than Murakami, but has shown a more disciplined approach at the plate (481 BB, 796 SO in 1074 games).

Moreover, Okamoto appears to be the better defender. He’s spent most of his career between the infield corners, winning a pair of Gold Glove Awards at third and another at first. He’s also spent some limited time in the outfield corners, adding to his versatility.

The six-time NPB All-Star was also on Japan’s WBC team in the last tournament, hitting a pivotal home run in the Championship Game against Team USA.

At least a half dozen clubs were ultimately linked to Okamoto over the last few weeks before he agreed to a four-year, $60 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. He received the largest guarantee among all of the international players available this offseason. Toronto will be responsible for an additional $10.875 million posting fee that will be paid to Yomiuri.

Murakami and Okamoto may offer a more defined power-centric approach at the plate. Sung Mun Song shouldn’t be overlooked, however, and may prove to be the most interesting signing of the three infielders coming to the majors.

Song’s career in Korea didn’t get off to an immediate start, spending his first few seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes in an inconsistently used utility role. More consistent playing time over the last two seasons resulted in a breakout at the plate, as he hit a combined .327/.398/.524 while averaging 33 2B, 22 HR, 97 RBI, and 23 SB over the last two seasons. With Song facing free agency following the season, the team signed him to a lucrative contract extension in August (just days before his 29th birthday) that contained language allowing him to be posted this offseason.

Scouting projections from most outlets were fairly consistent; the common refrain being that Song is “not quite the player Ha-Seong Kim was” when he first came to MLB from the KBO, but he’s “better all-around than” Hyeseong Kim. The San Diego Padres ultimately signed Song to a four-year, $15 million contract in mid-December. The Padres may not have looked like an obvious fit, particularly with Manny Machado entrenched at third base and Xander Bogaerts locked into either second or shortstop. Song spent most of his career in the KBO at third, but has time at both second and first base. San Diego may also consider utilizing him in an outfield corner, according to reports. Manager Craig Stammen may have to get creative with his lineup configurations to get everyone regular playing time, but that should be a “good problem” for any club to have.

There was no question that Tatsuya Imai had already established himself as being in a different tier completely from the other foreign pitchers available this winter. In fact, some even considered the right-hander as one of the best arms on the open market this offseason. Over parts of eight seasons with the Seibu Lions, Imai had a 3.15 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 963,2 IP. Control issues were a concern early in his career, but he’s shown consistent improvements there. This past season, he posted career lows with a 1.92 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 2.5 BB/9 over 163.2 IP en route to winning the NPB’s Sawamura Award.

Imai checked in at No. 7 on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list at the start of the offseason, with their team predicting a six-year, $150 million contract for the 27-year-old. While several teams were believed to have interest in signing Imai, it doesn’t appear any came close to matching those projections. Imai reportedly received longer offers with a lower AAV than the three-year, $54 million deal he ultimately agreed to with the Houston Astros (with salary escalators in Year 2 and 3 of the deal if he reaches certain innings-pitched thresholds this season that could push the total value to $63M). His agreement with Houston will allow him to opt out and re-enter free agency at the end of each season.

Those opt-outs make this a curious signing for the Astros, who didn’t appear likely to pursue a big addition to their starting rotation (even after losing Framber Valdez to free agency). Should he exercise an opt-out and leave after one season, he’ll have cost the franchise nearly $28 million (including the $9.975 million posting fee being paid to the Seibu Lions). That’s a significant sum for a club that appears to be operating on a strict budget. Imai’s addition has already spurned speculation about where the club could make a move to offset some other salary.

As surprising as it was to see Imai land with Houston, the move wasn’t entirely unprecedented. Imai was candid in a November interview with Daisuke Matsuzaka on Japanese TV’s “Hodo Station” about his interest in charting his own path in the major leagues without another Japanese player to lean on. Imai is not the first Japanese player to play in Houston (Kazuo Matsui, Nori Aoki, and Yusei Kikuchi all spent some brief time there), but he’s the first the team has signed directly out of Asia.

Expectations were already tepid when it was announced in late August that the Seibu Lions would make Kona Takahashi available to MLB teams through the posting system. At least six MLB clubs were reported to have scouted the right-hander. Still, experts suggested at the time that his “market will be similar to” what Shinnosuke Ogasawara and Naoyuki Uwasawa experienced when they first became available to teams. Ogasawara agreed to a two-year, $3.5 million deal with the Nationals last January, while Uwasawa signed a non-guaranteed split contract with the Rays the year prior.

There wasn’t much public speculation once the Lions formally posted Takahashi in late November. It doesn’t appear that a robust market developed, though MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that he had offers from at least three MLB teams. None were strong enough to entice the 28-year-old to sign, however, and he’ll instead return to the Lions for at least one more season. Per The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Takahashi and the Lions are discussing a multi-year deal that would allow him the chance to explore coming to MLB in free agency as soon as next offseason.

Over parts of 11 seasons in the NPB, Takahashi has posted a 3.39 ERA and 1.296 WHIP across 1199.0 IP. His inability to strike out many hitters (870 career SO, 6.5 K/9) was always going to limit his appeal to MLB teams.

Unlike most of his NPB peers, Kohei Arihara actually has prior experience in the Major Leagues. Arihara’s brief tenure stateside was marred by injuries, though, and it always seemed like something of a long shot that he’d command a big deal on the free agent market when reports emerged in early November that he was looking to return to MLB.

Arihara spent the first six seasons of his career with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters before his first opportunity to come to MLB, agreeing to a two-year, $6.2 million contract with the Texas Rangers following the 2020 season. The right-hander would make just 10 starts for Texas that first season. The Rangers’ medical staff discovered an aneurysm in his right shoulder, and surgery would keep him off the mound from mid-May until September. He’d spent the bulk of the following season at Triple-A Round Rock before making five late-season appearances (including four starts). The results weren’t positive — a 7.57 ERA (57 ERA+) and 1.731 WHIP over 60.2 IP between the two seasons — and Texas would designate him for assignment before the season concluded.

Arihara returned to Japan that offseason and has since posted three strong seasons with the Softbank Hawks. It’s unclear how serious his interest was in returning to MLB this offseason (or whether any MLB teams showed an interest in signing him; there were zero public reports connecting him to any clubs), but the 33-year-old agreed to a four-year deal to remain in Japan and return to the Fighters. Arihara will reportedly earn the equivalent of $15.4 million USD in this new deal (a $4M AAV actually puts him among the higher-paid players in Japan).

There were several other notable players — with varying amounts of prior MLB experience — available in free agency this winter who were expected to return stateside. Most of them did.

Right-hander Cody Ponce carried the highest promise and ultimately landed the biggest contract among all the players in this group. Ponce’s MLB career totaled just 55.1 IP between the 2020 and 2021 seasons before he elected to pursue an opportunity overseas. He’d spend part of three seasons in Japan with mixed results and then joined the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles for the 2025 season. Ponce flourished in Korea, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA over 180.2 IP, while breaking the KBO record with 252 strikeouts. He was a clear choice for the league’s Choi Dong-won Award at season’s end.

That success turned into a three-year, $30 million contract with the Blue Jays in December. Toronto has easily been among the most aggressive teams this offseason.

Once a first-round pick (28th overall) by the Royals in 2014, Foster Griffin’s MLB career totaled just 8.0 IP over seven appearances between the 2020 and 2022 seasons. The left-hander spent the last three years in Japan, however, showing substantially improved results — including a 2.57 ERA and 318 SO over 315.2 IP (9.1 K/9) while only walking 70.

Washington signed Griffin to a one-year, $5.5 million deal (he can potentially earn another $1M in incentives).

Left-hander Anthony Kay saw a bit more MLB time before heading overseas, appearing in 44 games and working 85.1 IP over parts of five seasons with three teams. He spent the last two seasons in Japan with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, posting a 2.53 ERA over 291.2 IP.

Chicago signed Kay to a two-year, $12 million deal, which includes a mutual option for 2028.

Drew Anderson made 19 appearances totaling 44.1 IP across parts of five seasons in the majors with rough results (a 6.50 ERA impacted by a high walk rate). The right-hander then spent two years in Japan, made a brief MLB comeback attempt in 2024 with the Tigers, and then spent the bulk of the last two seasons in Korea with the SSG Landers. The results in the KBO were particularly solid, including a 2.91 ERA and 403 SO over 287.1 IP.

Detroit signed Anderson to a one-year, $7 million contract with a $10 million team option for 2027.

Once considered an upcoming prospect with the Yankees, Tyler Austin’s MLB career included a .219/.292/.451 (96 OPS+) line in 583 PA over parts of four seasons with New York and Minnesota. He struck out 36.9% of those trips to the plate, which ultimately pushed him off an MLB roster and onto Japan. Austin has spent the past six seasons in the NPB, where he’s dealt with several injuries but has hit well when healthy, posting a .293/.377/.568 line in nearly 1,500 PA.

Chicago signed the 34-year-old to a one-year, $1.25 million deal.

Right-hander Ryan Weiss never reached the majors, topping out at Triple-A over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He’d spent time in the CPBL, the independent Atlantic League, and the KBO over the last two seasons. Last year, with the Hanwha Eagles, the 29-year-old was 16-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 207 SO in 178.2 IP.

Houston signed Weiss to a one-year, $2.6 million deal with a team option for 2027.

Lewin Díaz managed to hit just .181/.227/.340 (54 OPS+) in 343 PA over parts of three seasons with the Miami Marlins from 2020-22. He’d always shown more offensive potential in the minor leagues, but the opportunity for consistent playing time in the majors never materialized. After spending the first half of the 2024 season in Mexico, Díaz received a chance to head to Korea. Everything came together for the now 29-year-old this past season, as he slashed .314/.381/.644 with 50 HR and a KBO-record 158 RBI.

Still considered a strong defender (he also won the KBO equivalent of a Gold Glove this year), Díaz will return to the Lions for another season, agreeing to a one-year, $1.5 million deal in late November.

Jon Duplantier worked just 49.2 IP with the Diamondbacks between the 2019 and 2021 seasons. The right-hander continued to show promise at Triple-A over the following seasons, but another opportunity failed to materialize in the majors, and he leapt at the chance to head to Japan last season. Duplantier thrived with the Hanshin Tigers, going 6-3 with a 1.39 ERA over 90.2 IP before missing time with a lower-body injury.

Duplantier elected to remain in Japan, agreeing to a one-year, $3 million deal with the BayStars.