TBNL: Ending the Omar Vizquel vs. Ozzie Smith debate

This marks the eighth year Omar Vizquel has appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot, meaning it is the eighth year we’re being inundated with discussion about whether he belongs among the game’s greatest. Specifically, most of the discussion centers on comparing two players: Vizquel and Ozzie Smith.

The discussion is silly when there is such a clearly defined answer.

To a casual fan, the offensive numbers side-by-side might look fairly comparable.

Vizquel hit .272/.336/.352 (82 OPS+) in 12,013 PA with 2,877 hits, 456 doubles, 77 triples, 80 home runs, and 404 stolen bases (71% success rate).

Smith hit .262/.337/.328 (87 OPS+) in 10,778 PA with 2,460 hits, 402 doubles, 69 triples, 28 home runs, and 580 steals (80% success rate).

Vizquel finished his career 22nd on the all-time list for plate appearances, yet failed to reach 3,000 hits. He piled up 1,200 more PAs than Smith, playing five years longer, accounting for much of the balance in their counting stats. Calling them equal is somewhat superficial.

Vizquel’s 82 OPS+ would match Rabbit Maranville and Luis Aparicio (who each had almost 1,000 fewer plate appearances) for the lowest among all Hall of Famers.

Few argue that the pair are both among the top defenders at shortstop ever. Vizquel won 11 Gold Glove Awards, second only to Smith’s 13 at shortstop.

Each year we are learning more and more about defensive metrics, however, with both the metrics themselves and the understanding of what goes into them becoming more defined. Many of the Gold Gloves of years past likely would go to new recipients had some of this data been available (and readily accepted) at the time.

Poking around online to see what else has been written on the discussion over the years, I came across a post from December 2023 by Benjamin J. at his Substack, Eyes on Jake, which makes some excellent points on the defensive comparison between the two:

Vizquel clearly was not the same caliber defender as Smith, despite his reputation. He was likely not as good as his 11 Gold Gloves would suggest.

Vizquel played for six teams over his 24-year career and went to three All-Star Games. Smith played almost his whole career in St. Louis, appeared in 15 All-Star Games, won a Silver Slugger, an NLCS MVP, and helped the Cardinals win the 1982 World Series.

The differences between the two players become a little more evident when utilizing WAR. Both Baseball Reference’s and FanGraphs’ versions show a distinct difference between the two players, even though the metrics are calculated differently. B-Ref has Smith at 76.9 bWAR, while Vizquel is at 45.6. FanGraphs has Smith at 67.6 fWAR and Vizquel at 42.5.

That should be enough to end the discussion, right? It would seem pretty evident that the two players are not comparable. Vizquel’s (arguably overrated) glovework alone was not enough to warrant putting him into the Hall of Fame.

BBWAA voters also weigh a player’s character when they make their ballot decisions. This is where the debate ends entirely.

Smith was named the recipient of the Roberto Clemente Award in 1995 for his charitable efforts, playing an active role with the Missouri Governor’s Council on Physical Fitness and Health.

He also opened a youth sports academy in 1990 which remains in operation today.

Vizquel allegedly physically abused his ex-wife in a pair of separate incidents, as reported in a December 2020 story by Katie Strang and Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic. The alleged incidents took place in 2011, before the pair had married, and then again in 2016. He was arrested following the 2016 incident, but charges were dropped weeks later.

Eight months later, Katie Strang and James Fegan at The Athletic broke the news that Vizquel and the White Sox were being sued by a former Birmingham Barons batboy. The suit alleged that Vizquel had sexually harassed him, specifically targeting him because he has autism. Chicago suspended Vizquel (the manager of the Double-A Barons) when learning about the charges and fired him following the season. Vizquel and the plaintiff reached a confidential settlement a year later.

Smith first appeared on the HOF ballot in 2002 and was named on 91.7% of ballots. He was the lone player elected that year.

Vizquel first appeared on the HOF ballot in 2018 (Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman were elected that year) and was named on 37% of ballots.

Vizquel’s support rose to 42.8% in 2019 and then 52.6% in 2020.

Then the decline began. 2021 was 49.1%, 2022 was 23.9%, 2023 was 19.5%, and last year just 17.7%.

Ryan Thibodaux’s BBHOF Tracker does a fantastic job each year tracking ballots as they are shared publicly. Thibodaux and his team also track changes in ballots from one year to the next. It’s become an incredibly insightful and useful resource during the winter months when HOF discourse dominates things.

Through Friday, roughly one-third of the ballots sent out by the BBWAA have been shared publicly. Vizquel is projecting to get just 13.5% this year, though that number may be high. In recent years, the projection figures from the Tracker are often pulled down once all results are released by the Hall of Fame. Not all voters make their ballots public (some are even told by their employers to not do so until results are announced).

Vizquel shouldn’t be a HOFer. Arguing that he is with any variation of “what about Ozzie Smith?!!?” is simply absurd.

17 head to arbitration

Thursday’s filing deadline prompted a flurry of one-year agreements across the sport to avoid arbitration hearings. Just 17 players failed to reach agreements with their respective clubs, down from 23 last year and a record 33 the year prior, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

Arbitration hearings have long been a staple in MLB’s economic world. Eligible players and teams each submit what they feel is a reasonable salary for the coming season. A three-person panel then convenes and hears arguments. Representatives for the players and teams present their cases, which can often turn contentious. The panel then selects one of the two figures. They’re not permitted to select a number in the middle. Whatever the panel decides will be the player’s salary for the coming season.

Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

Nothing is preventing the 17 remaining players without 2025 contracts in place from negotiating with their respective clubs, but nearly every organization employs a “trial and file” approach to arbitration — meaning hearings are inevitable unless one of these players agrees to a multi-year deal.

Jays add a closer

It’s not one of the big-name additions they’ve been chasing but the Blue Jays have added a key piece to the back of the bullpen, announcing that they signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33M deal.

Hoffman spent the last two seasons in Philadelphia, posting a 2.28 ERA (184 ERA+) and 0.944 WHIP over 118.2 IP.

Toronto’s 1st Round pick (9th overall) in the 2014 Draft, Hoffman was the big prospect included in the Blue Jays’ trade a year later to acquire Troy Tulowitzki from Colorado. He’d debut in 2016 and over the next seven seasons with the Rockies and Reds he would pitch to a 5.68 ERA (86 ERA+) and 1.585 WHIP across 348.1 IP (134 appearances, 50 starts).

Hoffman likely will be the favorite for Toronto’s closer role, barring another addition before Opening Day, but Chad Green should also be in that mix.

The Orioles and Hoffman agreed to a three-year, $40M deal earlier in the week but flagged a concern — believed to be his right shoulder — in his physical, per a report from FanSided’s Robert Murray. Baltimore then shifted gears and instead signed Andrew Kittredge for one year and $10M.

Elsewhere, around the league …

• Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman and his wife Chelsea are donating $100,000 to three organizations to assist with wildfire relief efforts in LA. What has happened out there is tragic.

• During Game 4 of the World Series two Yankees fans made fools of themselves when they tried to rip a ball out of Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts’ hand. The pair was promptly ejected from the game and a chorus of boos followed them as they left their seats. According to Dan Martin at the New York Post, they’ve officially been banned permanently from all MLB stadiums and events. It was the only correct move the league could make.

• Pittsburgh needed to replace three left-handed relievers after seeing Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks, and Ryan Borucki depart in free agency. The team signed Caleb Ferguson to a one-year, $3M deal but may stretch him out in spring training with some consideration for a rotation spot, per MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf.

• Since teams can never have enough pitching depth — a reality some clubs are really taking seriously lately — the Cubs have signed Colin Rea to a one-year, $5M deal. The addition now gives Craig Counsell ten starters to evaluate in the spring for roles on the team (Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Caleb Kilian, and Cody Poteet) plus top prospect Cade Horton figures to be in the mix later in the season.

• Minnesota parted with 20-year-old right-hander Jose Vasquez to trade for Dodgers catcher Diego Cartaya. LA had designated the former top prospect for assignment when they signed Hyeseong Kim.

• Kansas City invited Jac Caglianone, last summer’s 1st Round pick (6th overall), to spring training. The soon-to-be 22-year-old set Florida’s career home run mark before joining the Royals. He hit .241/.302/.388 over 100 PA at High-A Quad Cities after signing and then added five homers in 21 games in the Arizona Fall League. It’s extremely unlikely Caglianone makes Kansas City’s roster out of spring but it’s still notable to see him in big league camp before his first full pro season.

Brother vs. brother fastballs

This one isn’t new but the stat is too fun not to share when it crops up now and then. Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola has thrown more than 10,000 fastballs over his career. Just nine of those have topped 96 mph. Three of the nine came against his older brother, Austin.

Austin is 1-for-5 with an RBI in six plate appearances against Aaron.

It’s not completely out of the question the pair will face each other again. Austin signed a minor league deal with the Rockies in early December. He batted just .176/.260/.297 over 195 PA last year in Kansas City’s minor league system, but Colorado has minimal catching depth behind their projected starters, Jacob Stallings, who is 35, and Drew Romo, who has only gotten into 16 career games.