Revisiting MLBTR's Top 50 free agents

MLB Trade Rumors unveiled their Top 50 Free Agents rankings in early November, complete with predictions about where players will sign and what contract terms might look like. MLBTR holds a prediction contest in conjunction with the annual list; last year I was correct on 11 out of 50 picks.

MLBTR’s rankings came out about two months ago. Spring training will begin in about six weeks. We’re, sort of, just passing the midway point of the offseason.

It feels like a good time to revisit the predictions I made two months ago (and published at the old Substack).

1. Juan Soto, Yankees

Soto stayed in New York but joined the Mets on a record-setting contract.

2. Corbin Burnes, Mets

Burnes ended up in Arizona, agreeing to a six-year, $210M deal (with an opt-out after Year 2).

3. Alex Bregman, Astros

Bregman remains on the free agent market and would appear to be Detroit’s top target. Most of the teams rumored to be pursuing the third baseman seem to have pivoted to other options and a return to Houston is off the table.

4. Blake Snell, Padres

Snell stayed in the NL West, joining the Dodgers, and came off the board quickly once the offseason officially began.

5. Willy Adames, Dodgers

Coming into the offseason I would have been certain the Dodgers would target a shortstop acquisition. Instead, they’re moving Mookie Betts to the position and Adames landed with the Dodgers rivals in San Francisco.

6. Max Fried, Angels

I thought for sure Fried would end up pitching back home in California, but he joins the Yankees on the biggest contract ever given to a left-handed starter.

7. Pete Alonso, Mets

Why this hasn’t happened yet I can’t explain.

8. Jack Flaherty, Dodgers

LA opted for Snell instead of bringing Flaherty back, basically. Flaherty surprisingly hasn’t seemed to develop much of a market yet but that should change soon. He’s certainly the most attractive free agent starter option left on the market next to Roki Sasaki.

9. Anthony Santander, Giants

Santander is one of the best power bats left and the Giants could still use another outfielder. The sides haven’t been connected publicly lately, but the fit is there.

10. Sean Manaea, Rangers

Manaea re-signed with the Mets (three years, $75M).

11. Teoscar Hernández, Dodgers

That’s one! LA re-signed Hernández to a three-year, $66M deal.

12. Yusei Kikuchi, Orioles

Kikuchi came off the board early, signing with a surprisingly aggressive Angels team.

13. Christian Walker, Orioles

Walker landed in Houston (three years, $60M) and shut the door on any chance Bregman returned.

14. Tanner Scott, Padres

Somehow the relief pitching market has yet to really develop. Scott is likely the best reliever available this winter and he’s left-handed, so he’s going to have options.

15. Luis Severino, Mets

Nobody could have predicted the contract Sevy received from the A’s when the offseason began.

16. Jurickson Profar, Padres

If San Diego would just wake up (they’re one of four teams yet to make any moves) then this would be a done deal.

17. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers

That’s two! Eovaldi returning to the Rangers was kind of obvious.

18. Jeff Hoffman, Rangers

There were rumblings that Hoffman was marketing himself as a possible starter early in the offseason, but those have fizzled out some. Hoffman is waiting for the reliever market to start up and the Rangers still likely need a late-inning option (or two).

19. Tyler O’Neill, Tigers

O’Neill felt like a logical choice to add a big bat to the Tigers lineup, but they seem interested instead in addressing their infield. O’Neill is the only piece the Orioles have added.

20. Gleyber Torres, Mariners

GT settled for a one-year deal with Detroit.

21. Clay Holmes, Phillies

Holmes being one of the first relievers off the market wasn’t a big surprise. Nor was he landing with the Mets. The fact that they’re going to use him as a starter is what’s shocking here.

22. Carlos Estévez, Blue Jays

Once the reliever market starts rolling players will sign quickly. The Jays could still use at least one reliever.

23. Matthew Boyd, Guardians

Boyd landed a two-year deal from the Cubs.

24. Joc Pederson, Mets

Pederson got two years from the Rangers.

25. Andrew Heaney, Giants

Once Flaherty signs, the remaining starters will start drawing some attention. SF has missed on their pitching targets so far this winter.

26. Hyesong Kim, Braves

There has been virtually nothing reported about Kim’s market since he was posted on December 4. The 30-day window to reach an agreement is closing soon.

27. Frankie Montas, Padres

The Mets were aggressive in adding starters, giving Montas a two-year deal (plus signing Holmes and Manaea).

28. Nick Pivetta, Red Sox

Pivetta received a surprising qualifying offer from Boston and he probably should have accepted it. The Red Sox have since added multiple arms and are no longer an option.

29. Nick Martinez, Reds

Martinez was surprisingly extended a qualifying offer by the Reds and he accepted it.

30. Danny Jansen, Cubs

Jansen landed with the Rays, probably the only team more in need of catching help than the Cubs.

31. Jose Quintana, Reds

Recent rumblings have connected Quintana to the White Sox, where he’s pitched previously and could serve as veteran leadership for a young rotation.

32. Michael Conforto, Mariners

Seattle still needs an outfielder and Conforto grew up in the Pacific Northwest. The fit makes sense.

33. Max Scherzer, Tigers

Detroit bringing either Scherzer or Verlander back for one final year is just too fun an idea to give up on.

34. A.J. Minter, Red Sox

Boston has already added two lefty relievers (Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson). Minter’s 2024 was ruined by injury but he’s been effective in recent years and should be drawing more interest (once the reliever market heats up).

35. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks

The Yankees were going to add a first baseman this winter, but I never would have guessed it would be Goldy.

36. Kyle Higashioka, Rays

Higashioka got a two-year deal from the Rangers in a very weak catching market.

37. Walker Buehler, Tigers

Curiously, Buehler didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and he ended up equating that salary in his new deal with Boston (plus an option for a second year).

38. Kirby Yates, Blue Jays

Another guy waiting on the reliever market to ignite.

39. Michael Soroka, Blue Jays

Soroka landed a one-year deal with Washington.

40. Andrew Kittredge, Twins

Minnesota has yet to do anything this offseason and could still use a reliever or two.

41. Kyle Gibson, White Sox

Gibson might be looking at a non-roster invitation to spring training somewhere at this point. Even with teams considering moving to a six-man rotation, there are limited rotation spots available for a guy like Gibson.

42. Tommy Kahnle, Rangers

Texas has added a few relievers on lesser deals (Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner) but could still use someone with late-game experience.

43. Ha-Seong Kim, Giants

The fit with San Fran felt obvious (Kim’s brother-in-law is Jung Hoo Lee, the Giants center fielder) and the Giants needed to add an infielder (they signed Adames). Kim may be waiting to see where Bregman lands, as he’ll be the next-best infielder left available.

44. Shane Bieber, Brewers

Bieber remained with Cleveland, which should have seemed more obvious.

45. Justin Verlander, Dodgers

LA is out (they’ll still need to add Clayton Kershaw back into an already-loaded rotation). Verlander will end up with a contender on a one-year deal.

46. Tomoyuki Sugano, Mets

Baltimore’s lone pitching acquisition so far. Sugano signed for less than I thought he’d get.

47. David Robertson, Yankees

The longtime veteran will sign somewhere if he wants to keep playing, but a return to New York is likely out of the question with the Yankees’ other bullpen additions (Devin Williams and Fernando Cruz).

48. Shinnosuke Ogasawara, A’s

Posted on December 10, there has been little-to-none publicly speculated information about where he might sign. There was already skepticism about whether Ogasawara’s stuff would be enough to hold a spot in an MLB rotation.

49. Harrison Bader, Phillies

Bader is a strong defender in center but the bat has never really developed consistently with the bat. He may be looking at a non-roster invite at this point.

50. Spencer Turnbull, Twins

Like Gibson, Turnbull is at the lower end of the available pitching spectrum and could be facing a non-guaranteed roster spot in the spring if a market doesn’t develop.

By my count, 25 of the players on this list have signed. Just three (Teoscar Hernández, Nathan Eovaldi, and Nick Martinez) of my predictions have been correct so far.