Revisiting the 2013 top prospects

Putting together a top prospects list is a massive undertaking. Even the most notable rankings — from MLB Pipeline & Baseball America — take a team of writers several months to compile, discuss, adjust, and finalize. There are no simple formulas that guide which players should appear on the list or where each would rank. These lists are an exercise in (well-informed) subjectivity.

I don’t have a formal scouting background; I’ve stated that several times before. Still, I like to think I have picked up some scouting knowledge in the almost two decades I have spent writing about the sport (let alone the 40+ years as a fan of the game).

For a brief stretch once upon a time, my writing focused on the minor leagues. Among the many projects I undertook during that time was compiling our own Top 115 list (evidently, I couldn’t settle on just 100 names) heading into the 2013 season. I won’t link to the list (which was published over 11 separate posts that took painstakingly long to find, thanks to my former employer’s strange decision to remove the search function from the site layout).

In most cases, five years of data is usually enough to properly look back and assess how a move (a free agent signing, trade, draft selection, etc.) turned out. It has been well more than five years since that ranking was put together … so let’s look at how some of these careers turned out, just for the heck of it.

Heading into the 2013 season, the three major prospect rankings (if we include Baseball Prospectus) each had the same players at the top of their lists. The same two players landed atop mine, as well. Neither was a real stretch.

Infielder Jurickson Profar was No. 1 on all three rankings. The 20-year-old played in 85 games for the Ranges in 2013, hitting .234/.308/.336 (77 OPS+) over 324 PA.

Profar hasn’t developed into the superstar that many projected, though. He has bounced around both the league (playing for five teams) and the diamond (appearing in 70+ games at every position but catcher and pitcher) during his 12-year career. He has hit .245/.333/.398 (100 OPS+, exactly league-average) in that stretch with 211 doubles and 125 home runs.

Profar will turn 33 during spring training. He still has two years (at $15 million a year) on his contract with the Braves.

Right-hander Dylan Bundy was No. 2 on two of the three rankings (B-Pro had him 4th). Baltimore had drafted him 4th overall in 2011 out of an Oklahoma high school, and he had sped his way through the minors in his first pro season, pitching to a 2.08 ERA over 103.2 IP across three levels before making a pair of relief appearances for the Orioles in September as a 19-year-old.

Bundy would miss the 2013 season due to Tommy John surgery, and injuries would plague him throughout his 8-year career. He appeared in 190 games, including 162 starts, posting a 4.74 ERA (92 ERA+) over 910.2 IP. He retired following the 2023 season.

A pair of sluggers, third baseman Miguel Sanó and outfielder Wil Myers, came in at No. 3 and 4 on my rankings.

Sanó split the 2013 season between High-A and Double-A as a 20-year-old, hitting .280/.382/.610 over 519 PA with 35 HR and 103 RBI. The Twins would invite him to spring training a few months later, but he would injure himself on a defensive play and need Tommy John surgery, delaying his debut a year.

Sanó hit .233/.325/.477 (115 OPS+) with 164 home runs over his 9-year career

Myers spent the first half of 2013 at Triple-A before Tampa Bay called him up in June. Myers slashed .293/.354/.478 (131 OPS+) over 373 PA with 23 doubles and 13 homers after joining the Rays, winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award (ahead of Jose Iglesias).

Myers spent 11 years in the majors, batting .252/.326/.437 (110 OPS+) with 211 2B, 156 HR, and 107 SB with an All-Star appearance in 2016.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler was No. 5. The 23-year-old Mets prospect started the year at Triple-A before making his debut that June. Wheeler made 17 starts for New York the rest of the way, going 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA (104 ERA+) over 100.0 IP.

Wheeler blossomed into one of the National League’s most consistent and highest-paid starters (signing two $100+ million contracts with the Phillies; he’s still due to be paid $42M in each of the next two seasons). Wheeler, now 35, has won a Gold Glove Award (2023), gone to three All-Star Games, and has a career record of 113-75 with a 3.28 ERA (123 ERA+).

José Fernández (No. 6), Óscar Taveras (No. 8), Tyler Skaggs (No. 16), and Yordano Ventura (No. 73) each, sadly, passed away far too early in tragic fashion.

Fernández posted a 2.58 ERA (150 ERA+) over 471.1 IP during his four seasons with the Marlins, winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2013. His final start came on September 20, 2016, when he shut down the Nationals over 8.0 shutout innings, striking out 12 and allowing just three hits. Fernández and his girlfriend would announce the next day that they were expecting their first child.

Days later, on the eve of his next scheduled start, Fernández was driving his boat at an excessive speed when it crashed into a jetty north of Miami Beach. Fernández and two passengers were killed in the impact. He was 24. Toxicology reports found cocaine and alcohol in his system at the time of the crash.

Taveras made his debut with the Cardinals in May 2014. He’d hit .239/.278/.312 (66 OPS+) over 248 PA the rest of the season, with 8 doubles and 3 homers. The young outfielder looked like he would be a big piece of St. Louis’s building efforts.

Just minutes before Game 5 of the 2014 World Series was set to start, reports started to circulate that Taveras had been in a car accident in the Dominican Republic. His car had driven off a dangerous highway at a high rate of speed, killing Taveras and seriously injuring his girlfriend. He was 22. Tests would find that his blood alcohol level was more than six times the legal limit in the D.R.

Skaggs had already made his debut for the Diamondbacks when he landed on my top prospect rankings heading into 2013. He would make seven more starts for the team that season with mixed results before Arizona traded him to the Angels. He would start 96 games over his seven-year career, posting a 4.41 ERA (93 ERA+) over 520.2 IP.

The Angels were in Texas for a series with the Rangers in late June 2019. Skaggs had developed a painkiller addiction after dealing with several injuries during his career. He reportedly asked Eric Kay, the Angels’ communications director, to help him acquire pills. Skaggs would not show up to the ballpark the next morning and was found unresponsive in his hotel, where he would be pronounced dead. He was 27. An autopsy found a mix of fentanyl, oxycodone, and alcohol in Skagg’s system.

Ventura pitched to a 3.89 ERA (106 ERA+) over 547.2 IP in parts of four seasons with the Royals. The flamethrowing right-hander was on KC’s 2015 World Series-winning roster, starting Game 3 of the series.

Ventura was playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic following the 2016 season when he flipped his Jeep Wrangler on a dangerous road, dying in the accident. He was 25. One of Ventura’s winter league teammates, Andy Marte, also died on the same day in a separate car crash.

Francisco Lindor (21) and Nolan Arenado (55) are the only likely Hall of Famers from the rankings.

Gerrit Cole (9) and Christian Yelich (19) could play their way into some consideration with a few solid seasons to close out their respective careers.

Lindor has not only been one of the best all-around offensive shortstops in baseball during his career, but he’s also been one of the most well-liked players around the league. Through his first 11 years (6 with Cleveland, 5 with New York), he is a .273/.342/.475 (120 OPS+) hitter with 339 2B, 279 HR, and 216 SB.

The 31-year-old just had his second 30/30 season in 2025. He’s a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner, a two-time Gold Glove winner, a Platinum Glove winner, and he finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting six times.

Lindor has six more years remaining on his contract with the Mets. He’s accumulated 55.6 bWAR in his career so far. The 23 Hall of Fame shortstops averaged 67.7 during their careers.

Arenado, meanwhile, has arguably been the best defensive third baseman the sport has seen since Brooks Robinson. Over his 13-year career (8 with Colorado, 5 in St. Louis), he is a .282/.338/.507 (119 OPS+) hitter with 405 2B and 353 HR.

The 34-year-old is an eight-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger winner, a 10-time Gold Glove winner, a six-time Platinum Glove winner, and he finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting six times.

Arenado has two years remaining on his contract with the Cardinals (though they’re expected to try and trade him this winter as they rebuild). He’s totaled 57.8 bWAR. The 18 HOF third baseman averaged 68.9 during their careers.

32 of the 115 appeared in at least one MLB game in 2025 (or spent the full season on the MLB injured list). The full list (and ranking):

Three more spent the year playing in Japan’s NPB: Trevor Bauer (13), Tyler Austin (81), and Gregory Polanco (84).

Luis Heredia (77), Miles Head (104), and Barret Loux (115) were the only players who never reached the majors.

The Pirates signed Heredia to a then-team record $2.6 million bonus as a 16-year-old international amateur out of Mexico in 2010. The right-hander established himself quickly as a prospect to watch, working his way up to Class-A just two seasons later.

Weight and control issues would plague Heredia from there, resulting in a move to the bullpen and some tension between him and the club. The Pirates would eventually release him after the 2017 season. Heredia posted a 3.88 ERA over 443.1 IP during his seven seasons with the organization. He’d go on to pitch sparingly over two seasons in Mexico before retiring.

A late-round (26th) pick out of a Georgia high school by the Red Sox in the 2009 Draft, Head spent parts of six seasons in the minor leagues, reaching as high as Double-A. The third baseman batted .277/.344/.458 in 1,778 PA with 55 HR. Boston traded Head (along with Josh Reddick and Raúl Alcántara) to the Athletics in December 2011 for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney.

Head passed away in 2022 at the age of 31.

Loux starred at Texas A&M and was projected to be a first-round pick in the 2010 Draft. Still, it came as a surprise when Arizona selected him 6th overall, reportedly having a pre-draft agreement on a $2 million signing bonus. Loux’s physical revealed concerns in his elbow and labrum, leading to the Diamondbacks not offering him a contract at all.

MLB declared him a free agent in an unprecedented move, and Loux would sign with the Texas Rangers. The right-hander would impress over the next two seasons, including winning Texas League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2012 when he went 14-1 with a 3.47 ERA after a promotion to Double-A.

The Rangers and Cubs had agreed to a trade at the 2012 deadline. The deal contained a condition centered on reliever Jake Brigham’s health at the end of the season; if not fully healthy, the Cubs could send him back to Texas in exchange for Loux. Following an elbow injury, the deal was completed in November.

Loux spent a year with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’d suffer another elbow injury just three starts into his return in 2015, leading to his release. Over parts of four seasons in the minors, Loux posted a 3.88 ERA over 327.1 IP, striking out 311 and walking 127. He’d spent another year playing in two independent leagues before retiring.