Blue Jays coming up short in efforts to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Toronto has made aggressive efforts to sign a big-name free agent in recent offseasons, making substantial offers to both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto only to fall short. The Blue Jays now seem to be at least trying to retain their own star before he reaches free agency next winter, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. The two sides are not considered close, but they’re at least talking.

The team has, at least according to one other “source”, made an extension offer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that has been rejected.

I use the word source loosely there. The report that started this came via Reddit from Mike Rodriguez, a former Spanish-language analyst for the Cubs who now posts solely on social media as a self-professed “MLB Insider,” who simply relayed a report from another insider, Carlos Baerga.

Baerga, an infielder who spent 14 seasons in the majors, is Cleveland’s Spanish-language radio announcer. The Puerto Rico native has developed a lot of connections with Latin American players across the league, allowing him to break a few signings himself via Twitter in recent years (Marcus Semien’s extension with Texas being the most notable).

Baerga has been wrong at times, too (he “reported” that Freddie Freeman had agreed to a deal with the Jays shortly before Freeman signed with the Dodgers). In short, much of what is “reported” by both Rodriguez and Baerga should be taken with a grain of salt.

Either way, a $340M offer — no other details (i.e. contract length) were provided, just a total dollar amount — does sound like a realistic possibility. It also shouldn’t be surprising that Guerrero would turn down such an offer (if it were actually made).

Some context is important. Given the deals signed last season by Ohtani ($700M) and this year by Soto ($765-805M, depending on how you want to calculate it) a $340M offer to Guerrero looks rather small. He isn’t quite the same caliber of player that either Ohtani or Soto is though.

A $340M contract would, however, still be the eighth-largest contract in MLB history (matching the 14-year deal the Padres gave Fernando Tatis Jr.). The only players ahead would be Soto, Ohtani, Mike Trout ($426M), Mookie Betts ($365M), Aaron Judge ($360M), Manny Machado ($350M), and Francisco Lindor ($341M).

Next on the list would be Bryce Harper at $330M. Harper might actually be a good comparable to look at. Guerrero just finished his sixth season with the Blue Jays. Let’s put his numbers up against the first six seasons of Harper’s career:

Guerrero has made four All-Star appearances, won a pair of Silver Sluggers, and a Gold Glove Award over that stretch. He also finished second in MVP voting in 2021 (losing to Ohtani).

Harper, in that same stretch, went to five All-Star Games, won a Silver Slugger, was Rookie of the Year in 2012, and the NL MVP in 2015.

The two, generally, stack up pretty well from a statistical standpoint. Guerrero tends to hit the ball a bit harder and doesn’t strike out as often. Harper gets on base at a better rate, has more speed, and provided more defensive value over the early portion of his career. Harper was still an outfielder at this point, a position that draws more value in WAR calculations than first basemen do for their glovework.

While Harper’s contract might offer a good starting point in future negotiations. That deal was also agreed to six years ago and the economics in baseball continue to change. Harper’s 13-year deal has an average annual value of $27.53M. It would seem highly likely that Guerrero could beat that AAV on the open market. The deals Pete Alonso and Christian Walker sign this winter will also prove telling.

Next year’s free agent class is not a deep one for hitters. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker will surely be the top bats available (barring a surprise extension for one of them) alongside the possibility of Japanese third baseman Munetaka Murakami, who is looking to make the move to MLB potentially as early as next offseason. The potential group of available first basemen is also limited to Josh Naylor, Yandy Díaz, and Rhys Hoskins (Tampa Bay has a club option on Díaz; Hoskins has a mutual option with Milwaukee).

Teams looking to add a big bat next winter in free agency will have few options.

Guerrero, to his credit, has repeatedly stated a desire to remain with the Blue Jays but there is little reason for him to accept a below-market deal to do so. Every indication suggests he’s in line for a substantial contract with his next deal, likely somewhere in the $350-400M range. Another 6+ WAR season in 2025 could push that even higher.

The Blue Jays are going to need to step up their efforts if they want to sign Guerrero to an extension before he reaches free agency.